0. 경린의 주절주절

출근길에 Stanley Druckenmiller의 인터뷰 영상을 보았다.

투자가 중 전설로 알려진만큼 30년 연평균 30%의 수익을 낸 엄청난 인물이다. 심지어 마이너스인 해가 없었다..

그의 자산은 $9.98B... (14조원..)어마어마하다. 그의 자산은 대부분 투자로 모았다.

2010년부터 패밀리 오피스를 운영하면서 자신의 돈만 운용하고있다.

 

 

그의 투자 철학을 알아보자.

 

 

Q. How do you think the tech sector will develop what kind of sceince are you seeing there?

A. The AI boom is going unabated(약해지지 않는), Nikolai. I think the private sector just sees it as an existential threat(존재에 위협을 가하는 문제) to their business if they don’t spend money on it. Because if they don’t spend money on it, and their competitors do, and their competitors are right, they’re going to have a big competitive problem. Of course, the hyperscalers(초대형 클라우드 인프라를 운영하는 기업들) are all in, and their demand is just continuing. So you’ve got very rich prices in the tech sector. Stuff like Apple is selling, I know, at 25 or 30 times earnings. It’s certainly not growing at 25 or 30%, but we don’t have that much exposure to the tech sector, and we’re not short on it, so not really involved...

 

Q. How do you sopt these early trends? What are you look at?

A. Honestly, I’ve got some really good young analysts here who are on top of things. About three or four years ago, they noticed that students at Stanford and MIT—especially engineers—were shifting their focus from crypto to AI. That was the first sign. Then my young partners started talking more and more about AI.

 

I asked them how to play it, and they mentioned a company called NVIDIA, which I had thought was just a gaming company. I hadn’t looked into it in a long time. I bought a pretty good chunk of it, and then, like a month later, ChatGPT happened. It was just total luck—I had no idea about ChatGPT. But AI was already big enough in our discussions, and the stock had dropped from around $400 to $150 or so. That’s how I got started with it.

 

Once we invest in something like that, we really start to dig deeper. Then we realized there was a whole chain of industries it would affect. We knew it would impact power, and we knew it would affect uranium. We just worked through the entire chain, and it was a pretty easy trend to spot—not unlike how the cloud was. You know, these things come in waves.

 

But AI—the question I’m wrestling with now, and the reason our exposure is neither significantly long nor short—is how to play it. We started with “picks and shovels,” like NVIDIA and, to some extent, Microsoft. But now we’re seeing massive amounts of capital being spent by these “modelers.” If AI is for real—and I think it is—they’re all going to give you the same answers. So, we’ll have four or five companies spending massive amounts of capital, but I don’t see it as a winner-takes-all model.

 

On the other hand, I think there are applications nobody has even thought of yet that are going to spring up. I mean, who would have thought of Uber or Facebook when the internet started? So, we’re very bullish on AI, but we’re not bullish, at least currently, on exactly where we should be or how to play it aggressively. It’s not unlike the internet in 2000–2001. You could have believed in the internet, not been exposed early, and still gotten your exposure later on a more timely basis. Or, I could just be wrong—which wouldn’t be that unusual.

 

 

모든 문장 하나하나가 주옥같다.. 어떻게 하나의 질문에 대하여 이렇게 구체적으로 상세히 적절한 예시와 경험을 모두 담아서 대답할 수 있지.. 진정한 전문가가 아닐까싶음... 인터뷰 뒷 내용도 좋은게 많은데 영어 받아쓰는데 생각보다 많은 시간이 걸려서 다음번에 이어써야징